Why Bulls Fans Should Be Giddy About the Alex Caruso Trade
After over a year of trade speculation, there seems to be—at best—mixed feelings about the return the Bulls got for Alex Caruso. But is the seemingly negative tone surrounding Chicago’s newest young piece truly justified, or should fans be optimistic about adding Josh Giddey to their core?
With the 2023-24 NBA Finals coming to a close earlier this week, you would think the Celtics might get more than just a few days to remain atop the headlines after their historic run, right? Not in this league. Only three days later, we were once again reminded that the NBA never sleeps, and with the offseason upon us and trade rumors swirling everywhere you look, the action is just about to pick back up.
Thursday afternoon, the Chicago Bulls agreed to trade all-defensive guard Alex Caruso to the Oklahoma City Thunder in exchange for Josh Giddey. After the news was broken by Adrian Wojranowski, the NBA twitter world’s immediate reaction was justifiably “what an amazing pickup for the Thunder”, followed by the internal thought of “I wonder what draft capital is involved.” After about four or five feed refreshes, it was announced that there were no draft picks included in this deal—it was a true one-for-one trade.
Given that the Thunder own an NBA-most 15+ first round draft picks over the next seven drafts, it seems like the Bulls would have had a decent amount of leverage to pry away at least one first round pick in return for the plug-and-play defensive mastermind that is Alex Caruso. Let’s just say that people did not hold back on their bashing of the Bulls for failing to do so:
Despite the apparent public perception that the Bulls may have gotten fleeced—or at the very least, could’ve done better—I can’t get on board with the “I can’t believe Chicago didn’t get a pick” narrative.
There is no doubt that Josh Giddey’s value across the league is at an all-time low. There were always concerns about how Giddey’s shot—or lack thereof—would translate to the postseason, and after finally getting a look at in him in the playoffs this year, let’s just say the early returns were not great.
In the second round against the Dallas Mavericks, Giddey shot a putrid 3-for-16 from three-point range (18.8%), virtually all of which were completely wide open, uncontested shots. Dallas’ entire game plan was to force the ball to Giddey in the corners and dare him to shoot. His inability to hit shots was a significant detriment to the Thunder—the team had a -14.7 net rating when Giddey was on the court. Mark Daigneault eventually opted to bench Giddey in favor of Isaiah Joe, who is a 41.6% shooter from deep, which relegated Giddey to only 12.6 minutes per game in the series—less than half the 25.1 he played in a prominent role for this team during the regular season.
Despite Giddey’s struggles from outside, there is definitely still reason to believe in him as someone who can be highly impactful. Is Giddey even close to a perfect player? Definitely not. And is his biggest flaw not only extremely glaring, but maybe the most valuable skill in today’s game? Absolutely. No one is arguing against that, but let’s not fall victim to revisionist history.
It’s easy to forget that just a year ago, everyone loved Josh Giddey. Among the major media outlets, ESPN had him as the 53rd best player in the NBA, Bleacher Report had him as the 57th best player, The Ringer had him as the 64th best player, CBS Sports had him as the 61st best player, The Washington Post had him as the 61st best player, and even yours truly had him as the 63rd best player.
Not only did the general public view Josh Giddey as a consensus top 60-ish player, but there is no doubt that the Thunder viewed him as a cornerstone to their future. Just one year ago—in only his second season in the league, at the ripe age of 20(!!!) years old—he was second on the team in scoring at 16.6 points per game and led the team in both assists (at 6.2 per game) and rebounds (at 7.9 per game). That was for a team that won 40 games and was only one single play-in win away from clinching a playoff berth.
Giddey is a guy that, one year ago, would have demanded likely at least two first round picks on the open market. So, what changed to create such a negative perception around him and this trade?
Well, the emergence of Jalen Williams, the ascension to stardom by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the integration of Chet Holmgren is what happened. This team was way ahead of schedule, and as a result, the Thunder had no choice but to run their offense through those three players. All of their increased touches had to come from somewhere, and unfortunately Josh Giddey was the main victim. The Thunder unexpectedly found themselves in a position to contend as soon as this season, so they couldn’t afford to wait around for Giddey to develop a reliable jumper.
For some players, a slightly lower usage rate is no big deal. But Josh Giddey is at his best with the ball in his hands, and the emergence of other players on the roster took the ball out of his hands and often relegated him to the corner as an off-ball player and spot up shooter—a role he was destined to fail in.
Through the first two years of his career, only 4% of Giddey’s shots were corner threes. This past season, that number jumped up to 11%, and in the postseason, it was even more significant—with 26% of his shots coming via corner three, and 42% of his overall shots being three-point jumpers.
Per Cleaning the Glass.
When the stakes got higher, Giddey’s role was more and more diminished, and he was put in a position to do primarily the thing he is the worst at—shoot threes.
Most successful teams in the modern NBA have their own version of a “Three-and-D” player that spends most of their time in the corner, awaiting the ball and ready to shoot when the defense collapses on the star player and they kick it out. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for the Nuggets, Jaden McDaniels for Minnesota, Derrick Jones Jr. and PJ Washington for Dallas, and even glorified versions, such as OG Anunoby for the Knicks—the list goes on.
This past season, Josh Giddey was forced to audition for a role to join that group. But forcing his skillset into a box that he was never meant to fit in was never going to work for him or for this team. He was never going to be successful—or at least was never going to get a chance to improve his game—if forced into that sort of role.
Giddey has a unique skillset—one that is coveted by a lot of teams that fall into offensive stagnation. At 6’8”, he is a gifted passer and an offensive hub. The type of playmaker that can thrive as a half-court initiator. In his first two seasons in the NBA, Giddey ranked in the 100th percentile at his position in assist rate, and even in a more limited role last year, was still 96th percentile.
Per Cleaning the Glass.
During the 2022-23 season, he was given much more free reigns to have the ball in his hands and be more involved in the Thunder offense. In that season, among all qualifying players taller than 6’7”, he ranked fourth overall in assists per game, potential assists per game, and assist points created, after only Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Domantas Sabonis. Is he as gifted as those players as a playmaker? Probably not, but it shows you what he’s capable of when given more offensive freedom—he can run the show with the best of them.
Giddey’s recent decline in approval rating has not been a product of him “getting worse.” But due to team circumstances, he was just in a role that minimized his skillset.
And what better skillset for a team like the Bulls that ranked 28th out of 30 teams in assist rate just last season? A team whose best player from a year ago—DeMar DeRozan—is an unrestricted free agent. A team that is actively shopping their former all-star Zach LaVine. A team that’s brightest spot from last year—Coby White—ranked only in the 21st percentile in assist rate last season, despite being the “point guard of the future” for this team.
Giddey’s skillset will be a warm welcome for a team that desperately needs more playmaking and needs to rely less on isolation shots. And aside from the skillset, Giddey brings another thing that this team desperately needs—youth.
For three years now, the Bulls have been built around a group of aging, former all-stars in Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic. At 33—turning 34 by opening night of the upcoming season—Vucevic showed significant decline last season. DeRozan is still a very impactful player, but he could walk in free agency, and at age 34—turning 35 soon—his best days are well behind him as well. LaVine is a bit younger, but will still be 30 by next season’s end, has maybe the worst contract in the NBA, and is entering his 11th season in the league with only one single playoff appearance to his name. None of these guys are top-40 players in the league at this point and that can be best illustrated by their lackluster postseason track records.
These guys have all been varying levels of good-to-elite as scorers and offensive players, but their track record shows us that they just aren’t fit to lead a team on a meaningful playoff run—or these days—even make the playoffs at all. They also don’t have anyone else on the roster with the clear potential to help that issue. Coby White had a very impressive breakout season—finishing a close second in the NBA’s Most Improved Player voting—but outside of him, Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu are their only other true young assets on the team, neither of which likely project as more than role players.
There’s no question that it was time to invest in a youth movement, and Giddey is a significant step in the right direction. He is still a very intriguing and talented young player that—on a team like the Bulls where he can have the ball more—could thrive. He has legit size at 6’8”, has career averages of 13.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists on a respectable 46.4% from the field, owns an extremely unique skillset for his position as a passer and offensive hub, and is still only 21 years old.
Giddey unquestionably has his flaws, but Chicago isn’t in a position to nitpick on individual attributes. They should be focused on bringing in young talent and searching for untapped potential. Josh Giddey has the kind of all-star-level upside that this team should be searching for. One team’s postseason liability could be another team’s future cornerstone—just look at guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Domantas Sabonis, Tyrese Haliburton, and Victor Oladipo, all players who were shipped out on their rookie deals in “win now” moves that eventually blossomed into all-stars on their new teams.
I know that Oklahoma City has a treasure chest of picks, but did you really think Sam Presti of all people was going to offer up anything more than a heavily protected, late round pick for a 30-year-old, injury-prone role player in Alex Caruso? That is not to take away from the extremely valuable skillset that Alex Caruso has—he is as elite of a perimeter defender as there is in the league, and his offensive connectivity cannot be understated. Given where the Thunder sit as legitimate contenders in the West, the opportunity to add a player like Caruso was simply too good to turn down, and if Giddey is the casualty to get you a championship—you do it 10 out of 10 times.
But for anyone who wanted Chicago to get picks back instead of a player like Giddey, I just ask you, what are you hoping a pick in the 15-25 range nets you anyways? At best, likely a rotation player, but players in that range are a total crap shoot. So instead, why not add a 21-year-old proven commodity with legit size and the upside to run an offense through?
Regardless of the return for Caruso, dealing him was a necessity for the Bulls given the state of the team, his age, and his contract situation. Most importantly, it might signal that Chicago is finally ready to pull the trigger on a rebuild—which they so desperately have needed to undergo for years, and if you are a Bulls fan, you can only hope this is the first move in what will be a fire sale.