2023-24 NBA Season Preview: Western Conference

Previewing the 2023-24 season with my picks for how the regular season standings will play out in the Western Conference. This preview includes each team’s projected lineup, deep dives on the outlook for each team, and ceilings and floors for each team this season.

Note: The numbers next to player names represent their ranking on the top 100, to see full top 100 player article, read here: NBA Top 100 Player Rankings

If you prefer to read the team previews broken down by contender tiers, click below to switch over to Title Contender Tiers for all 30 teams:

Click on the plus sign on the right for a deep dive on each team.

• 1. Denver Nuggets (54-28)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 1: The Favorites

  Projected Rotation

  G - Jamal Murray (30) / Reggie Jackson

  G - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (93) / Christian Braun

  F - Michael Porter Jr. (65) / Justin Holiday

  F - Aaron Gordon (50) / Peyton Watson

  C - Nikola Jokic (1) / DeAndre Jordan

  Season Outlook

  After enduring years of playoff battle scars, the Nuggets finally got over the hump last season and brought home the franchise’s first NBA Championship. The Jokic-Murray core has now played at 50-win pace or better and secured a top-three seed in the West in four of the last five seasons. The one season they failed to reach those benchmarks was a year in which Jamal Murray missed the entire season recovering from his ACL injury, and even with that, they still finished with 48 wins and a top-6 seed in the loaded West — no small feat.

  This year, the Nuggets bring back their entire starting lineup from last season — a lineup that had the best net-rating in the entire NBA (min. 350 minutes played), with a ridiculous +13.1. They have the best player in the world in Jokic, a co-star that peaks at the best possible time each year in Murray, elite level role players in Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr., and one of the league’s best 3-and-D guys in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Jokic and Murray pick-and-roll continues to be the NBA’s deadliest two-man game, and there’s no reason to think that that combo, paired with high-level shooters flanked on the wings and Gordon camped in the dunker spot, won’t continue to lead to Denver owning one of the NBA’s most dominant offenses. Their biggest question mark last season was defense, where they were league average at only 15th in the NBA, but they showed a drastic improvement on that end during the postseason, ranking third among all playoff teams during their run in defensive efficiency — allowing 3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did in the regular season.

  Despite retaining their top five guys, they were not so successful in running it back with their bench unit. Bruce Brown got a bag from Indiana and Jeff Green departed for Houston, both of whom were major parts of Denver’s success last season. The Nuggets weren’t a necessarily deep team last season even with those guys, as they truly only played a 7.5 man rotation last postseason. Green and Brown were 6th and 7th on the team in minutes during their postseason run, as well as the only two bench players to play all 20 playoff games or average 15+ minutes per game. What did they do to replace these guys? Well, not much. Their biggest free agent acquisition was Justin Holiday (a 32.2% three point shooter last year) and the only other noteworthy additions were a trio of rookies — Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther, and Hunter Tyson, none of whom were top-20 prospects coming into the draft. The Nuggets will be majorly reliant on at least one of those three guys turning into a rotation player, as well as guys like Peyton Watson and Christian Braun to step up, both of whom showed flashes last year, but lacked consistency. Additionally, DeAndre Jordan and Reggie Jackson are members of their bench as well, but both appeared washed last season — completely falling out of the rotation in the postseason last year.

  Despite that unproven bench unit, Denver should feel confident. They have as good of a track record as anyone in the league with player development, and odds are high that one of those young guys can make an immediate impact. Additionally, Denver has picks and assets to move for a potential midseason upgrade, if needed. But regardless of any move they make, their starting five rivals anyone in the league and they are led by the best player in the world. It probably says something about how good of a team this is that the biggest criticism you could find is the departure of their 6th and 7th men. With major moves made by other contenders near the top of the league, there is certainly an argument to be made that Denver is not as talented across the board as teams like the Bucks, Suns, or Celtics, but given the continuity of their core, as well as the respect for them as defending champions that return the best lineup in basketball, they have earned the right to go into the season as the favorite to win it all.

  Team Ceiling

  The Nuggets could not only compete for the best record in the West once again, but could absolutely repeat as NBA Champions. Considering the core they have locked up, then if they did, it would spark legitimate conversation of this being a dynasty in the making.

  Team Floor

  Their regular season floor will remain relatively high, so barring injuries, a Jokic-led team should be a lock for a top-four seed. Though, come playoff time, they could definitely run into a tough matchup versus a team like the Suns, Warriors, or Lakers in the second round, and it’s on the table that they might find themselves to be the third straight defending champ to get bounced in the semi-finals.

• 2. Phoenix Suns (52-30)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 2: True Threats to Steal the Larry O’Brien

  Projected Rotation

  G - Devin Booker (8) / Eric Gordon

  G - Bradley Beal (42) / Grayson Allen

  F - Josh Okogie / Keita Bates-Diop

  F - Kevin Durant (5) / Yuta Watanbe

  C - Jusuf Nurkic / Drew Eubanks

  Season Outlook

  After a full decade without a single playoff appearance, the Suns now own the NBA’s best record over the past three years (160-76) by a full five games, including an NBA Finals appearance in 2021 and a franchise-best 64 wins in 2022. Despite all of that success, this team comes into the 2023-24 season with as much roster turnover over in the past year as any team in the entire NBA, with Devin Booker being the only player remaining on the team from their 2021 Finals run. Last year was a bit of a roller coaster for the Suns. They decided to make a big splash by acquiring Kevin Durant at the trade deadline while he was still injured, and when he finally returned, he re-injured himself almost immediately. Because of that, he only played 8 regular season games for Phoenix, which really limited the reps this group could get together. That, paired with over a month long stretch without Devin Booker through December and January, led to a massive lack of continuity for this Suns team, and they ultimately fell short to Denver in the second round.

  Since then, Phoenix made another big splash by trading for Bradley Beal this offseason. In just the past 9 months, we’ve seen mainstays such as Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Cam Johnson all be shipped out of town, along with basically all of their draft assets. With that, the Suns are officially all in on winning now with their big three of KD, Booker, and Beal. That trio should be among the best in the league and will be absolutely lethal offensively, as we know that the KD-Booker duo has already proven to be nearly unguardable. Durant is coming off a season in which he averaged 29 points on inconceivable 56% / 40% / 92% shooting splits, and Booker on the other hand, put up Michael Jordan-esque numbers in the postseason, averaging nearly 34 PPG on 59% / 51% / 87% splits. While Beal is coming off consecutive “down” years for him (though, still 23+ PPG in both), that was as the number one option getting all the attention from defenses. We have said for years now that Beal would be best suited as a number two, and now we get to see him as the clear-cut number three. In that role, he should see a significant uptick in wide open catch-and-shoot opportunities — a contrast to the off-the-dribble shot creation he was forced to predominately do in Washington. Aside from their big three, the Ayton trade really helped solidify their depth as a real strength. Nurkic is a downgrade at center, but Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon bring the kind of consistent shot creation and downhill attacking that the Suns have not had off the bench in recent years. Those two are also knock down shooters and they added other nice pieces in Yuta Watanabe, Keita Bates-Diop, and Drew Eubanks.

  The biggest question mark for Phoenix will be their defense. Even if Nurkic is a comparable rim-protector to Ayton, the drop off between the two in defensive versatility is significant. Opposing teams will run pick-and-roll after pick-and-roll to get Nurkic switched out on the perimeter — a place we have seen him be a total liability in the past. He is slow footed on that end and just hasn’t been as impactful since coming back from his major injury a few years ago. Additionally, the Suns don’t really have any “lock down” defenders on the perimeter either. Josh Okogie is solid there, but we saw him get pretty neutralized in the postseason while trying to guard Jamal Muarry, and he did not have much impact at all in slowing him down. Allen, Bates-Diop, and Watanabe have all been decent guarding the perimeter at times, but Bates-Diop and Watanbe have not done it for good teams in high-leverage situations and Allen has been exposed in the postseason in the past with the Bucks. After that, they are going to be pretty reliant on Booker and Beal to contribute as impact defenders, which both have shown capable of at times (Beal early in his career and Booker in recent years), but that is a tall task to ask your 25 PPG scorers every single night.

  Ultimately, Phoenix’s offense is going to have potential to be all-time good, which should help them cruise through the regular season, even if their defense is in the bottom-half of the league. Their fate is really going to come down to how engaged guys like Beal, Booker, and Nurkic are on the defensive end of the court, but if anyone can get it out of this team, it’s Frank Vogel. Not only is he a championship head coach, but he has had a top 12 defense in 8 of his 11 seasons, as well as a top three defense in 5 separate seasons. If the Suns can even be in the 10-12 range defensively as a team, then they are as big a threat to win the title as anyone in the league, and their potent offense will give them a chance to knock off anyone.

  Team Ceiling

  The Suns have all the offensive firepower they could need to not only end the season atop the West standings, but also to make a deep run. If their defense can even be league average, then they’ll have a legitimate shot to win their first NBA Championship.

  Team Floor

  They should have enough scoring and talent to, at worst, bring home a top-6 seed in the West and avoid the play-in — even if one of KD, Beal, or Booker miss a bit of time. Come playoff time, their defense could certainly be the death of them, and they may run into a tough opponent in the second round like the Nuggets, Lakers, or Warriors. This could leave them getting bounced in the semi-finals for the third straight year.

• 3. Golden State Warriors (49-33)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 3: Age and Health Permitting

  Projected Rotation

  G - Chris Paul (54) / Gary Payton II

  G - Steph Curry (3) / Moses Moody

  F - Klay Thompson (66) / Jonathan Kuminga

  F - Andrew Wiggins (49) / Dario Saric

  C - Draymond Green* (40) / Kevon Looney

  *Will miss start to season due to injury

  Season Outlook

  After winning their fourth NBA Championship with their core of Steph, Klay, and Draymond in 2022, the Warriors followed it up with a strange season of mediocrity. They were 10-10 after 20 games, 20-20 after 40 games, and 30-30 after 60 games before finishing the season 44-38 as the 6 seed in the West. This was the first time we’ve seen this core finish with a seed that low in the playoffs, as they had either been a top-three seed or missed the playoffs entirely in every season since their first ring back in 2015. A lot of their struggles could be boiled down to the preseason drama created by the Draymond Green punch of Jordan Poole, and as a result, the Warriors shipped out Poole to Washington for pennies on the dollar compared to what his value would have been just one year ago.

  With Poole now gone, the Warriors brought in a familiar face — one they are more accustomed to lacing it up against rather than with, and that’s Chris Paul. They now have 6 guys for 5 spots, so it will be interesting to see who comes off the bench, whether they play small with Draymond at the five and Looney coming off the bench or bring CP3 off the bench to run the second unit (I would go with the latter). We won’t know right away because Draymond is set to miss the start of the season with an injury he sustained in training camp. That aside, there are also a lot of reasons to believe the Warriors can and will bounce back from their mediocrity of last season. For one, Andrew Wiggins played only 37 games last season, as he was away from the team for personal reasons, and we saw how important he is to this team during their 2022 title run. Their defense also took a huge step back last year, which likely was due in part to Draymond toning it down a bit in an effort to gain back the credibility of his teammates after the punch. As a result, he was less vocal and did not hold his teammates as accountable as he normally does on the defensive end. Additionally, the Warriors appear to have moved away from the “two timelines” approach and seem committed to maximizing what they have left with their aging core. They moved on from Jordan Poole and James Wiseman, both of whom were wildly inconsistent and often a detriment to the team on the court, and have instead invested in veterans like Chris Paul, Gary Payton II, Dario Saric, and Corey Joseph — a model much more similar to their 2022 team when they had Payton, Otto Porter, and Nemanja Bjelica getting most of the bench minutes. But the biggest reason the Warriors should feel good is because, despite being nearly 36, Steph doesn’t appear to be declining anytime soon. He has had two of his three most prolific scoring seasons (32.0 and 29.4 PPG) over the past three seasons, including a heroic 50-point game 7 vs. the Kings in the postseason last year, carrying them to the second round.

  It is easy to make excuses for why the Warriors might have had their down year last year, but there is an equally strong argument to be made that they will replicate their inconsistencies next year as well. Steph is obviously their best player but Draymond might be their most important one, particularly defensively, and he is already set to miss the start of the season due to injury. Without him, they will take a major hit defensively and have much more limited lineup flexibility. Additionally, Klay Thompson had some very concerning moments last season. While he did shoot it well from deep in the regular season, he’s shot only 43.4% from the field over the past two seasons, which are two of the three worst shooting years of his entire career. Despite his lower efficiency, he is still given the same green light offensively, which can lead to sporadic shots that really hurt them offensively. Even worse, he looks like he’s lost a full step defensively. Once an all-defense caliber player, he now looks like a liability on that end. Also, the Chris Paul fit is still a huge unknown. Is he going to be okay coming off the bench? Can the Warriors survive defensively playing Paul, Curry, and Klay at once? (I think not). And how will his ball dominant style fit in with the Warriors ball movement heavy, free flowing offense? These are all fair questions. On top of that, they only have one player on the entire roster 6’10” or taller, and it’s Dario Saric, — a good player, but not someone who can be relied on as a full time five.

  Ultimately, because the Warriors have Steph Curry on offense and Draymond Green anchoring their defense, they are always going to have a punchers chance of contending. They are still a very good team with a really good top-6 players and plenty of competent role players behind them — including a few young guys in Moody, Kuminga, and Brandin Podziemski that could make a huge difference if they break out (seriously, watch out for Podz). They have championship pedigree and more experience than any single team in the league. With that said, there are real questions about if their core, outside of Steph, is still good enough to make a deep run, so consider them a Western Conference contender without championship upside.

  Team Ceiling

  If everything clicks for the Warriors and they pick right back up where they left off in 2022, then a top 2-3 seed definitely is in play for them, with a chance they could even win the West if the matchups broke in their favor. However, I don’t think Steph has the requisite supporting cast to knock off the top teams in the East, and even Denver and Phoenix will be tough matchups. With that said, I think winning title number five feels a bit unrealistic for this team, and in an absolute best case, they feel like a Finals team that falls short.

  Team Floor

  With Draymond already hurt, an injury to Steph would be detrimental to this team. If that happened, then they could easily flirt with a play-in spot and find themselves with a really tough path in the postseason. If they do finish with a lower seed and draw the wrong matchup, a first round exit can’t be ruled out.

• 4. Los Angeles Clippers (49-33)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 5: Can’t Get Out of Their Own Way

  Projected Rotation

  G - Russell Westbrook (92) / Bones Hyland

  G - Terrance Mann / Norman Powell

  F - Paul George (17) / Nic Batum

  F - Kawhi Leonard (10) / Robert Covington

  C - Ivica Zubac / Mason Plumlee

  Season Outlook

  Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s tenure with the Clippers has mostly been defined by “what ifs.” What if COVID never hit and the 2020 season had played out normally, rather than in the bubble? What if Kawhi didn’t tear his ACL in 2021 during the best postseason run in franchise history? What if PG didn’t get COVID right before their play-in game in 2022? What if Kawhi made it through the entire first round series against the Suns this past year after going up 1-0? The team has been truly great when both of them play, as they have a 83-35 record (.703 win%) when both suit up, good for 58-win pace over a full season. But because either one or both of them are almost always out, the team has yet to win 50 games in a season with this group and only have one Western Conference Finals appearance to show for it.

  While there have been extensive James Harden rumors for the Clippers, as of now, they seem content running it back with last year’s team. They retained all of their top free agents (other than Eric Gordon) and chose to not make any other major additions. Coming into their 5th season with this core, both Kawhi and PG are reportedly fully healthy to start the year, so it looks as if their front office thinks this team can contend as is and that all they need is a healthy season with their two stars. It’s not hard to understand why they feel that way, because even though Kawhi started slowly this past season after coming back from his ACL injury, once the calendar year turned to 2023, he was back to his old, dominant self. From early January on, Kawhi averaged 27.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on a ridiculous 52.6% from the field and an even more absurd 46.8% from three-point range. And even though he only made it through two playoff games, he looked like the best player on the court in those games, averaging 34.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 2.0 steals on 54.5% from the field and an unreal 60% from three. He put real fear in the eyes of Phoenix early in that series and they might have had a legit shot to win if he stayed healthy, even without Paul George. Him and PG still form one of the absolute deadliest duos in the entire NBA, both offensively and defensively, and the Clippers have a great amount of depth behind them as well. Westbrook looked like a totally different player with the Clippers than he had as a Laker, particularly in the postseason. They also have a plethora of wings to plug and play with, all of whom are good shooters and compete defensively in Terance Mann (38% career from three), Norman Powell (39%), Marcus Morris (38%), Nic Batum (37%), and Robert Covington (36%). They also finally have different options at center besides just Zubac or playing small ball now that they will have a full season of Mason Plumlee in the fold. Add in a backup guard with mini-Lou Will potential in Bones Hyland and you have a ton of options to mix and match. On top of all that, they have one of the absolute best coaches in the NBA in Ty Lue — an NBA Finals winner, one of the absolute best at making in-series postseason adjustments, and the man who led the Clippers to their first Western Conference Finals appearance in franchise history in just his first season at the helm.

  All of this sounds great on paper, but the Clippers’ two star players are among the most injury prone that we have in the entire league. Since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined the team back in the 2019 offseason, they have played only a combined 118 games together, for an average of less than 30 per season. And unfortunately, it’s been arguably worse in the postseason. Since the 2020-21 season, the Clippers have had one single playoff series in which both PG and Kawhi made it through the entire series healthy. You normally can’t assume injury, but at a certain point, you can kind of can. How many years do we have to watch it play out the same way before we just assume that come playoff time this team is going to be without at least one of PG or Kawhi, if not both? Aside from health, this team does still have some question marks overall as well. It remains to be seen if a Russell Westbrook team can realistically compete at a high level in the postseason, as we simply just have not seen it, especially not as he’s gotten into his mid-30s. Also, a lot of their 3-and-D wings are getting a bit older and aren’t nearly the defenders they used to be, particularly Morris (34 years old), Batum (34), and Covington (32). All three of them teetered in and out of the rotation at different points in the season last year and, at their age, just can’t be relied on to be consistent contributors on both ends of the floor.

  Ultimately, just like every year for this team, health is going to decide their season. While they can still win games in the regular season with just one of their stars, if Kawhi or PG miss extended time and/or aren’t healthy for the postseason, then this team has virtually zero chance of being a contender that can be taken seriously. If by some miracle, both the two of them are healthy for at least the majority of the year and into the playoffs, then who knows what they could accomplish. They’d have as high as ceiling as any team in the West — with elite coaching, a bonafide top 10 guy, an all-NBA level costar, a solid and deep bench, and lots of playoff experience up and down the roster. They have all the talent and pieces to contend, but given the injury risk, I wouldn’t count on it ever coming to fruition.

  Team Ceiling

  If fully healthy, this team could not only be a top seed in the regular season but could seriously make a run at the Finals. They are one of the few teams with the talent and pieces to knock off anyone in the West, including the Lakers, the Suns, or even the Nuggets. The only thing is, this team’s best case seems more unlikely than most other teams’ based on this group’s injury history.

  Team Floor

  We’ve seen what injuries can do to this team, as they’ve turned this talented group into a team fighting for their lives to avoid the play-in. There’s no doubt that if Kawhi and/or PG miss time, which seems likely at this point, that they could once again find themselves in the play-in. Depending on health during the play-in games, they certainly could come up short in a tough matchup and find themselves at home come postseason time, similarly to 2022.

• 5. Los Angeles Lakers (48-34)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 3: Age and Health Permitting

  Projected Rotation

  G - D’Angelo Russell / Gabe Vincent

  G - Austin Reaves (59) / Max Christie

  F - LeBron James (11) / Taurean Prince

  F - Jarred Vanderbilt / Rui Hachimura

  C - Anthony Davis (13) / Christian Wood

  Season Outlook

  Since LeBron came to L.A. back in 2018, the Lakers have experienced just about every sort of result you could think of. They’ve won a championship, they’ve lost in the Western Conference Finals, they’ve lost in the first round, they’ve been a play-in team, and they’ve missed the playoffs and the play-in altogether. This mixed bag of results has been due to a mix of injuries, poor roster construction, and bad chemistry fits, and last year was a perfect example of that. The 2022-23 Lakers started the season 2-10 and were on the outside looking in on the playoff picture for nearly the entire season, but after a barrage of midseason trades, most notably the departure of Russell Westbrook, the Lakers finished the season very strong. They had the number one defense and the best record in the Western Conference post-deadline, and were able to ride that hot streak all the way to the Western Conference Finals before falling to the eventual champion Nuggets.

  Unlike a lot of other prospective contenders, the Lakers did not make any major moves this offseason, and instead opted to bring back all their main guys — most notably D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura. After a couple seasons with massive turnover, they decided to roll with continuity in an attempt to ride that postseason momentum into this year and bank on their second half last year not being a fluke. And that makes sense, because their run certainly did not look like it was an accident, largely due in part to AD’s pure dominance defensively. In the postseason, he averaged an unfathomable 4.5 stocks (steals + blocks) and led the entire postseason field in every major defensive metric — including blocks, defensive rating, and defensive win shares. Perhaps the biggest difference maker for the Lakers was the emergence of Austin Reaves, as there were times last season where Reaves looked like the best offensive initiator on the team. He is a great shooter, is unbelievably efficient, can handle the ball like a point guard, and has shown an impressive ability as a shot-creator for both himself and others. On top of that, the Lakers added Gabe Vincent and Christian Wood — Vincent who brings playoff experience, defensive toughness, and a steady alternative to Russell at the lead guard position, and Wood who is as good a roll man and scoring big off the bench as we have in the league today. While LeBron did show some signs of decline last postseason, it’s fair to wonder if that was truly a decline or if his midseason injury was still lingering. Regardless, he is still a bonafide superstar and has as big an impact offensively as anyone in the league outside of maybe Jokic, and together he and AD are still both undoubted top 15 players in the league.

  We saw firsthand last postseason how good a fully-healthy Lakers team can be, but that is often the big issue for this team — health. Anthony Davis has played an average of only 44 games per season over the past three years, while LeBron has averaged only 52 per year in that same span. There’s a reason they haven’t finished higher than the 7 seed since their 2020 championship season, and if they don’t get at least 60+ games out of both of those two, then it’s going to be tough for them to secure a top four seed in a competitive Western Conference. At this point, until we see them both make it through a full season healthy, then I think it is safe to assume that both of them will likely miss their annual 25+ games throughout the season. With that said, it could be an uphill battle come playoff time if they are closer to the play-in than the top of the conference, as they have been in recent years. Additionally, LeBron showed his first real signs of a potential decline last season, particularly in the playoffs. His defensive effort has been spotty at best in recent years, he shot an abysmal 26.4% from three in the postseason, and he more often than ever settles for bad, long range jump shots, rather than taking the ball to the basket. The Lakers have had some real half-court scoring issues down the stretch of games in recent years largely due to this potential slight decline from LeBron and AD’s head-scratching offensive inconsistencies — highlighted by his postseason, where he had consecutive 20-point games only three times across 16 playoff games, as well as five games of 40% or worse shooting.

  The Lakers are a very good team that has a top-two rivaling anyone, a third option with massive upside in Reaves, and are a team that can win games with their defense alone. Their ceiling is close to the other top contenders in the league, but there are just too many things that have to go right that just haven’t gone right in recent years for them in order to be legit contenders. They’ve put all their eggs in the basket of a fragile, inconsistent big man and a will-be 39-year-old to carry them offensively, and I’m not convinced they have the offensive firepower after those guys to hang around with the big dogs. The almost certainty of injuries will likely hurt their spot in the standings, and once in the postseason, I’m not sure AD and LeBron can put together another deep playoff run without breaking down. Consider them a real contender to make a run in the West, but winning the whole thing feels a bit unrealistic for this group.

  Team Ceiling

  If LeBron and AD can stay *mostly* healthy during the season, then a top 2-3 seed definitely feels in play for them, and another run to the WCF, or even the Finals, certainly isn’t out of the question. However, I don’t see them having the firepower to knock off either Milwaukee or Boston, and I think it would take a lot to beat Denver or Phoenix as well, so I think winning a title would be a lofty goal, and they likely max out as a Finals team that falls short.

  Team Floor

  Injuries could completely ruin their season, as they have in the past. If AD and LeBron miss major time, then they could easily fall back into the play-in once again, and there are no promises if you’re coming into the postseason as a 7 or 8 seed, likely against a strong team like Denver or Phoenix. With that said, a first round exit is definitely in play.

• 6. Oklahoma City Thunder (46-36)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 7: If Not This Year, Maybe Next

  Projected Rotation

  G - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (16) / Tre Mann

  G - Lu Dort / Cason Wallace

  F - Jalen Williams (74) / Isaiah Joe

  F - Josh Giddey (63) / Davis Bertans

  C - Chet Holmgren / Jaylin Williams

  Season Outlook

  After making the playoffs 10 out of 11 seasons from 2010 to 2020, the Thunder essentially went full tank-mode, selling off a number of star players in just a few seasons, including Paul George, Russell Westbrook, and then Chris Paul. Since then, they’ve put a major focus on acquiring draft capital, taking on bad contracts from other teams, and investing in the development of their young players. While this was not a team to be taken very seriously over the past few years, last season was different, as they took a pretty significant leap from 24 wins in 2022 up to 40 wins last year, floating right around .500 and being one single play-in win away from the playoffs. This is not your Oklahoma City Thunder of old, this team is a real threat to take another leap this season as well.

  The Paul George trade looked like a haul at the time for the Thunder, but as time has gone on, it just looks better and better. Draft picks aside, the biggest prize of the deal by far was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA had been really good for a few years, but he broke out in a big way last year in his age-24 season. He bumped his scoring by nearly 7 full points all the way up to a ridiculous 31.4 PPG, shot an impressive 51% from the field, and had advanced metrics that suggested that he was in the same class as the absolute best players in the league. This was a massive leap for him, as he went from a young, up-and-coming player to a bonafide all-star and all-NBA contender, achieving first team all-NBA honors last year. Getting a star is the hardest part of taking the next step for a young team, and it seems they’ve checked that box already. Thankfully for them, Sam Presti has been hoarding draft picks for years and done a phenomenal job in building a supporting cast for SGA with Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and now Cason Wallace, their first round pick this year. Giddey and Williams have already showcased how talented they are, and at only 21 and 22 years old respectively, there is no reason they won’t continue to ascend on both ends of the floor. Williams shined during the second half of last season, and if Giddey ever develops a reliable jump shot, watch out. The Thunder essentially played all of last year without a center and still won 40 games, so a healthy Chet Holmgren should make a significant difference for this team, if not just for his length alone. Chet won’t be asked to do a ton, and the talented infrastructure the Thunder have in place should allow him to focus on the things he is best at — disrupting shots on defense and stretching the floor on offense. He’s looked great in both summer league and preseason, so there’s no doubt he will help this team, even if it’s just as a role player at first. They also bring a bevy of other young players with a bunch of upside. Tre Mann and Isaiah Joe have shown flashes with their scoring and shooting, Lu Dort has been among the best young defenders in the NBA over the past few years, and Cason Wallace looks like he could be the second coming of Jrue Holiday and have an immediate impact for this team, even as a rookie. This team already has their star, they play hard, and they’re loaded with young talent, all things that typically bode well for a breakout season.

  With youth comes inexperience, and this team certainly is inexperienced. The only players on this entire roster that figures to get 20+ minutes per game and have even played a minute in the postseason are Lu Dort and SGA. Dort has only played in one series back in 2020 when he was just a rookie and SGA has been there twice, but lost first round both times. He also wasn’t nearly the player he is now, averaging only 15.1 PPG across his two appearances, and playing in the postseason as a second or third option is not at all the same experience as being the clear-cut, lead guy getting the primary attention from the defense, and we have not seen him in that role quite yet. The sample size on SGA being all-NBA level good is also only one season, so while there aren’t necessarily reasons to think he’ll regress, it might be a little early to crown this guy a bonafide top 10 player when he’s only got one all-star appearance to his name and hasn’t led a team to the postseason on his own. As mentioned with their big man rotation last season, Chet is really the only viable center option on this team (sorry Jaylin Williams and Poku) and I still have concerns on whether he can hold up for a whole season in that role given his frame (7’0” and still less than 200 pounds), especially considering that he’s already missed an entire season.

  All in all, even just making the playoffs would be a resounding success for this team. All of their core guys are extremely young (SGA 25, Giddey 21, Jalen Williams 22, Chet 21, etc.), so they have plenty of time to make their leap, but this team seems so talented on paper that it really could be as soon as this year. They have a legit shot to be majorly ahead of schedule to not only make the postseason but to flirt with a top-6 seed and avoid the play-in completely. They have no realistic expectations or pressure (despite being a media favorite), so playing with house money should work in their advantage. Best of all, if they end up being a bit better than expected, Presti has all the assets in the world to help improve this team. They ultimately have a wide range of outcomes, as this still might be a year too early for them, but their ascension is coming either way, so I’d rather predict it one year too early than one year too late.

  Team Ceiling

  If SGA continues his all-NBA level play, their other core young guys continue to ascend, and Chet is the missing piece in the front court, then this team could be this year’s Kings. A top 4-6 seed really can’t be ruled out, especially if some of the older teams in the conference take it easy in the regular season. If they end up there in the standings, odds are still high they’ll draw a really tough first round matchup, so similar to Sacramento last year, they likely would lose a hard fought series to a more experienced team.

  Team Floor

  They are officially too good to be consider tanking or be anywhere lower than the play-in, so the 9-10 seed range is where their floor likely is, right where they were last year. Still very inexperienced and young, a play-in loss is completely realistic for this group, regardless of which team they match up against.

• 7. Memphis Grizzlies (44-38)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 6: Non-Serious Playoff Teams

  Projected Rotation

  G - Ja Morant+ (14) / Derrick Rose

  G - Marcus Smart (70) / Luke Kennard

  F - Desmond Bane (47) / Ziaire Williams

  F - Jaren Jackson Jr. (35) / Brandon Clarke*

  C - Xavier Tillman Sr. / Santi Aldama

  +Will miss first 25 games of season due to suspension

  *Will miss start to season due to injury

  #Steven Adams is not listed, as he will miss the entire 2023-24 season due to injury

  Season Outlook

  For years now, the Grizzlies have been viewed by many as having one of the best young cores in the entire NBA, with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. all 25 or younger, signed to long-term rookie extensions, and looking like top 50 players in the league already. After being in the playoff picture nearly the entire 2019-20 season before losing in the bubble play-in, they finally snuck into the postseason in 2020-21 as the 8 seed, and have been playoff mainstays since then, including back-to-back 50 win seasons, securing the second seed in the Western Conference both years. This team looked to be on a linear upwards trajectory, but with Ja Morant’s off the court issues, they certainly went through some growing pains last season, which led to an ugly first round exit to the 7-seeded Lakers in which they lost by 40 points in the elimination game 6.

  The Grizzlies have mostly relied on internal development and growth to help improve the team over the years, having let solid role players like Grayson Allen, Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and De’Anthony Melton all move on from the team without much of a return in terms of immediate contributors. That philosophy finally changed a bit this offseason, as they did make a bit of a splash in trading for Marcus Smart and they now have the two most recent winners of the Defensive Player of the Year award on their team. Smart will be a great addition to this group and fits in perfectly with the “grit and grind” motto that has represented this organization for years. The Grizzlies have been a top 6 defense in each of the past three years (including second last season), and the departure of Dillon Brooks was sure to hurt that. But adding Smart should completely offset that loss on the defensive end as their new go-to perimeter defender. Offensively, Smart will certainly be an upgrade over Brooks as well, who should be addition by subtraction on that end. Smart is unquestionably better as a facilitator, ball-handler, and I can’t believe I’m saying this about Smart, but also as a decision maker (yes, Brooks was really that bad). Additionally, Smart will bring some much needed leadership as a guy that can hold Ja and the other young guys accountable and provide some much needed playoff experience, as he’s played in 5 of the past 7 ECFs. All in all, the Grizzlies now come into the year with an extremely strong starting five, including a budding superstar in Ja Morant (27 and 7 averages over the past 2 years), a 20+ PPG scorer and one of the absolute best shooters in the whole league (career 42.5% from three) in Bane, an elite rim-protecter and shot-blocker (led the NBA in blocks for two straight years) that stretches the floor and made an all-star team last season in JJJ, and now add to it with a hard-nosed and gritty defender with loads of playoff battle scars in Smart.

  This season certainly won’t be a cakewalk for this team though, as their best player, Ja Morant, is set to miss the first 25 games of the season due to a suspension for his multiple gun related incidents off the court. Additionally, Steven Adams is now out for the entire season due to a knee injury. Strangely enough, the Grizzlies wen’t 20-5 without Ja during the 2021-22 season, but that always felt like a fluke, as they were only 11-10 without him last season. Without Ja, their offense coul.d get ugly. Bane is a really good player and has continued to improve and impress as an offensive option, specifically as a shot creator and initiator, but he still is no where near being a viable first option on a playoff team. This also will have a ripple effect on the pecking order, forcing JJJ to become the second option, something he likely isn’t suited to do in a full-time role either. Perhaps most terrifying of all is the idea that Marcus Smart is going to be the lead guard with the ball in his hands with Ja out and, unlike in Boston, he is not going to have clear-cut, all-star level offensive options to defer to — which even when he had that, he often failed to defer frequently enough. If Smart becomes too featured as an offensive option for this team, the results are likely not going to be great, as he is a sub-40% shooter from the field for his career and that was exclusively as a complementary piece in Boston. The Adams loss is not minor either, as he is one of the best offensive rebounding bigs (5.1 offensive boards per game) in the entire league, which matters given how poor of a rebounder JJJ is (6.8 rebounds per game total). Last year, The Grizzlies were 28-14 when Adams played and only 23-17 when he didn’t, which is a pretty drastic drop off. Additionally, there are now real questions about Memphis’ depth given these absences. Luke Kennard and Xavier Tillman Sr. (only 6’8” with a career 6.2 PPG) will likely be forced into the starting lineup with Ja and Adams out and there won’t be a lot of proven commodities to find on this bench, as Brandon Clarke is still recovering from his major injury and will be a non-factor to start the season. After that, they have Ziaire Williams (7.2 career PPG), David Roddy (6.7), Santi Aldama (7.6), John Konchar (4.6), Jake LaRavia (3.0), and a 35-year-old Derrick Rose, who managed only 12.5 minutes per game in 24 games for the Knicks last season. If they don’t get one or two of those young guys to break out into legit contributors for this team, then depth could be a real issue for a team that will be without its best player for 30% of the season and its starting center for the entire year.

  Ultimately, Memphis has some great young talent but still too many question marks going into this year to be taken seriously as a legit threat in the West. They might find themselves in a sizable hole to start the year while Ja is out and, with how deep the conference is, that might be the difference between being a top-four seed and a trip to the play-in. The Ja situation aside, I’m still very skeptical that this team has the proven depth to make a deep run, or more importantly, the requisite star-power offensively. I don’t think Bane or JJJ are sufficient number twos to contend, unless your number one is a Jokic or Giannis, which Ja is not. Consider this team likely a low-end playoff team with low upside come postseason time.

  Team Ceiling

  The Grizzlies have proven they can stay afloat without Ja in the past, and if they do so again and then he comes back and gives them a boost, then this team could contend for a top-four seed still, as they have the past two years. Come postseason time, I think a trip to the Western Conference Finals could be in play if they get the right matchups, but anything beyond that might be a stretch, as they are likely still a year or two away from being true Finals contenders.

  Team Floor

  Without Ja, they could certainly get off to a slow start, and then integrating Ja midseason with a new backcourt-mate in Smart could take a little bit of time chemistry-wise. If that does happen, given how deep the West is, there’s no doubt this team could find itself deep in the play-in mix towards the end of the season, hovering in the 7-9 seed range. From there, I trust them to get the job done and at least make the playoffs, but a first round exit could be waiting for them if they’re forced to play one of the top teams, like Denver or Phoenix, in round one.

• 8. Dallas Mavericks (43-39)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 6: Non-Serious Playoff Teams

  Projected Rotation

  G - Luka Doncic (4) / Seth Curry

  G - Kyrie Irving (22) / Tim Hardaway Jr.

  F - Josh Green / Oliver-Maxence Prosper

  F - Grant Williams / Maxi Kleber

  C - Dereck Lively II / Dwight Powell

  Season Outlook

  After increasing their win percentage every single season since drafting Luka Doncic in 2018 (and topping out at 52 wins in 2021-22), the Mavericks took a massive step back last year in what was largely a disaster of a season for them. On February 10th, the Mavs sat at 31-26 as the four seed in the Western Conference, looking poised to build on their recent Western Conference Finals run, but things just went completely south from there. They would lose 5 of their next 6 games and finished the season 7-18 over the final 25 games of the year, not only falling out of the playoff picture, but completely out of the play-in altogether. They also added Kyrie Irving midseason in hopes to finally find a legit costar to pair with Luka, but that did not help their slide at all, as the Mavs continued to crater even with the Kyrie addition, leaving major question marks about the overall fit of those two stars on this team.

  There are a number of different reasons you could point to for why the Mavericks were such a mess last season but there is no reason more prominent than their defense. Despite all that Luka does for them offensively, the strength of their 2021-22 team, a team that won 52 games and made the WCF, was their defense. They were 6th in the NBA defensively with a very impressive 109 defensive rating that year, and this past year, they followed it up by finishing 24th in the NBA in defense, including allowing a full 7.3 more points per 100 possessions, good for nearly a 117 defensive rating. They went from a team that relied on their defense to win games for them to a team that couldn’t get stops at all, and while you might be able to skate by with a middle of the pack defense, you just will not win games at a high level in this league with a defense in the bottom five. On top of their defensive woes, the early returns on the Kyrie-Luka pairing were not great. They had an abysmal 5-11 record in games that Kyrie and Luka shared the court together, certainly not the kind of boost they were hoping for when they acquired him near the deadline last year. Luka and Kyrie still both got their stats, but with both of them being mostly ball-dominant scorers, at times it felt like a lot of “your turn, my turn” with the two of them and not enough fluid chemistry playing off each other in the flow of the game. Additionally, the Mavs front office has done a really poor job of finding quality talent to pair with their stars. They let Brunson walk for nothing and, outside of their top two guys, they don’t have another player on the roster that even sniffs the top 100 or has any sort of all-star type potential. Seth Curry and Tim Hardaway Jr. are their next best offensive creators, but they both are undersized defensive liabilities, neither can play big minutes next to both Luka and Kyrie, and they are on the wrong side of 30. Their big man rotation is also still a major question mark. Dwight Powell has been fine giving them 20 minutes per game but he’s now 32 and offers virtually nothing on the offensive end. They did add Richaun Holmes and Dereck Lively II, but Holmes couldn’t get minutes over Alex Len in Sacramento and Lively is still only 19 years old and came along extremely slowly as a freshman at Duke.

  Even with all of that, there is reason to be optimistic that Dallas will be more similar to the previous iterations of this team than last year’s version. While the first look at Kyrie and Luka together wasn’t great, it is really tough to write them off completely after just 16 games together and they should benefit greatly from a full offseason and training camp to develop some on-court chemistry. Kyrie is far and away the best teammate Luka has ever had and I think this duo will be extremely deadly offensively when it’s all said and done. If Luka could have real success with Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie, then it would be foolish to think he can’t make it work with Kyrie. Additionally, their overall personnel moves did seem like general upgrades across the board. The addition of Seth Curry should be a plus, as we have already seen him be very successful in the past next to Luka. While their big man rotation is no sure thing, at least they have more options now. Last season it was pick your poison with either Christian Wood, who was good offensively but a disaster on defense, Dwight Powell, who was solid defensively but a zero on offense, or JaVale McGee, who was so bad that they decided to eat the last two years on his deal. This year, they have a bit more to pick and choose from with Holmes and Lively, and if Lively specifically can realize even some of his potential this season, he may end up being their best option. Even with his slow start at Duke, he was a truly elite shot-blocker and rim-protector in college and a relatively skilled rim-runner on offense. They also have a number of other high upside players on the team, such as Josh Green and Jaden Hardy, both whom played well in spurts last season and should have an opportunity to get more minutes this year. Either of those two breaking out in a meaningful way would go a very long way for this team, especially Josh Green, if he can turn into a good 3-and-D player.

  Ultimately, the biggest reason for optimism in Dallas is Luka. He is as good of a one-man offense as we have in the NBA and the way he manipulates and controls the game on that end give you a very high floor as a team all on its own. He is a legit top five player in the NBA, and anytime you have a top five guy, you have a chance to knock off anyone. We saw him drag an unimpressive group to the WCF in 2022, and if their defense can hold up, then there’s no reason to think that he can’t do it again, especially with a more accomplished second option next to him in Kyrie. However, if the defense is no better, then this group might find itself in a similar situation to last year — fighting for their play-in lives. Either way, while Luka can carry a team in any given round, there are going to be questions about if his heliocentric style of play is sustainable across an entire playoff run. The only real examples of someone as ball-dominant as him we’ve seen in the modern era are Russell Westbrook and Harden, both of whom are notorious for early playoff exits. Even if the defense improves and the role guys perform better, it is yet to be seen if a player with his usage rate can take a team to the Finals, and given their unproven and lackluster supporting cast, it’s best to assume that type of ceiling is off the table for this group.

  Team Ceiling

  There’s a world where the Kyrie-Luka pairing turns out to be arguably the best one-two punch we have in the league, a lot of their younger supporting players take a leap, and their defense reverts back to what it was in 2022. If those things were to happen, then a top 3-4 seed is certainly in play for Dallas and another trip all the way to the WCF couldn’t be ruled out Unfortunately, I don’t think the supporting pieces are good enough to make it any further than that, even if Luka were to put on an all-time performance, so they are still probably a couple ancillary pieces away from Finals contention.

  Team Floor

  We basically saw this team’s floor last season. The defense was a mess, the Kyrie-Luka pairing looked clunky, and they just didn’t have the sufficient support guys next to their stars. In this scenario, the play-in looks like a best case, and there are no guarantees once you get there in the loaded West. It’s not crazy to think this team could miss out on the playoffs altogether again if things don’t play out their way.

• 9. Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 7: If Not This Year, Maybe Next

  Projected Rotation

  G - Mike Conley (90) / Shake Milton

  G - Anthony Edwards (26) / Nickeil Alexander-Walker

  F - Jaden McDaniels (78) / Troy Brown Jr.

  F - Karl-Anthony Towns (29) / Kyle Anderson

  C - Rudy Gobert (55) / Naz Reid

  Season Outlook

  After just one playoff appearance in 17 years, the Wolves finally broke through in 2022 off the strength of their young core. After that, they made maybe the most shocking move of last offseason in acquiring Rudy Gobert for a haul that may go down in infamy. Gobert’s first season in Minnesota was anything but a smooth transition, as the team regressed a bit and they never quite ironed out all the kinks. Even with that, they still made the playoffs and played the eventual champion Nuggets extremely tough in the first round in what was a very competitive five-game series.

  The Wolves come into this season with largely the same group they had last year and are banking that another year together to develop chemistry can help this team take a leap. In reality, they’re banking on another year of Anthony Edwards developing, as he has essentially been handed the keys to this being his team. Ant has a chance to be really special. He’s still only 22 years old and is only getting better, as he’s increased his points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, field goal percentage, and three point percentage in each season of his career thus far. As talented as Karl-Anthony Towns is, and boy is he talented, it just doesn’t seem like he’s got enough of that dog in him to lead a team, and so Ant has taken over the alpha role for this group. With that said, KAT makes for a phenomenal number two. Outside of those two, this team just has a ton of really solid role players that compete hard on both ends of the floor. Gobert is the ultimate role player and has built up a Hall-of-Fame career doing exactly that. At the deadline last year, they reunited him with the best pick-and-roll partner he’s had in his career in Mike Conley, and they should greatly benefit from a full season with him. Conley is a much better fit on this team than D’Angelo Russell ever was and is as steady as they come at the point guard position, a good decision-maker, and a high-IQ player. Jaden McDaniels might be the next big thing in the world of 3-and-D players, and they also have Naz Reid, Kyle Anderson, Troy Brown Jr., and Shake Milton. Reid and Anderson were major contributors for this team last year and Milton and Brown were added in the offseason to bolster their shooting. There are a lot of players to like on this team, and if Edwards can develop into the top 10 player that many think he will, then this team could be on the rise very soon, not only in the standings, but as a contender.

  There is definitely a lot to like about this roster, but there is also one thing to really not like about it, and that is the KAT and Gobert pairing. To say it was a clunky fit between these two would be an understatement. On offense, their efficiency plummeted when they shared the court. They had only a 106 offensive rating with the two of them playing together, which was seven full points lower than their 113 offensive rating on the season. That number for the season ranked only 23rd among all NBA teams, and that’s a year after they were top 10 in the NBA in offensive rating without Gobert. On the defensive end of the court, the numbers bared out okay overall, but I’m sure that when Minnesota acquired Gobert they were hoping he would push them into the elite category on that end, and instead, it only bumped them up from 13th in defensive rating to 10th. Plus, regardless of what those numbers say, with KAT being forced to play the four, he was put in many more scenarios where he had to guard smaller and quicker players on the perimeter, an area which he can certainly be a liability. The hope would be that with a year under their belt, they can better adjust to playing together, but the problem is, they only played 27 total games together last season due to KAT missing an extended period, so the continuity has not been there to this point. Chris Finch also would often stagger them throughout games, so the number of reps these guys have together is really not as high as you’d like. Plus, irrespective of fit, KAT has some basketball IQ stuff on the court that just feels like it always comes back to bite this team in the biggest moments and he has shown an unwillingness at times to fully pass the baton to Ant, even if that’s what’s best for the team (it is).

  The Wolves are a really tough team to pin down. On one hand, they have one of the best, young, up-and-coming, potential superstars to pair with a supremely talented offensive big and a collection of good defensive role players. On the other hand, they’re attempting to play two traditional bigs together in a league that is moving away from the traditional big and towards versatile, position-less basketball. How you feel about them might come down to what you care more about, talent or fit? Maybe the fit is so bad that it won’t matter how good Ant is, or maybe Ant will be so good that it won’t matter how clunky the fit is. I tend to lean the former because, while I think Edwards is great, he is still not an all-NBA level player just yet, and until he is, I’m not sure this combo is going to work for this team. Another so-so year with this group and they may be forced to explore moving Towns for a piece that fits the roster a bit better next to Gobert and Ant, because the Gobert contract is almost immovable at this point. This season could go a number of ways for this team and it mostly comes down to how much and how quickly Edwards can continue to ascend.

  Team Ceiling

  If Edwards breaks out as a clear all-NBA guy and the KAT and Gobert combo starts to gel as they get more reps together, then this team could have a very high ceiling in the regular season and certainly could have a Sacramento type leap into the top-three of the standings. With a high seed, they still would likely draw a tough team in the West but would be high enough to avoid the top contenders in round one. A trip to the second round is possible, but that’s where this team maxes out.

  Team Floor

  The KAT-Gobert duo could continue to look like it’s just never going to work and Edwards could continue to improve but just not quite take that full next step quite yet. In this scenario, the Wolves almost certainly find themselves in the play-in for the third straight year. There’s no guarantee they’d be as fortunate as they have been, clinching a playoff spot there the past two years, as the West is very strong this season, so a trip to the lottery can’t be ruled out.

• 10. Sacramento Kings (41-41)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 6: Non-Serious Playoff Teams

  Projected Rotation

  G - De’Aaron Fox (27) / Davion Mitchell

  G - Kevin Huerter (83) / Malik Monk

  F - Harrison Barnes / Chris Duarte

  F - Keegan Murray / Sasha Vezenkov

  C - Domantas Sabonis (25) / Trey Lyles

  Season Outlook

  Before last season, the last time the Kings had made the playoffs, De'Aaron Fox had just graduated second grade. The owners of not only the NBA's longest postseason drought but also the longest standing drought in American professional sports, Sacramento finally clinched a playoff spot after 16 long years in the lottery and did so in resounding fashion, clinching a top-three seed in the Western Conference and winning nearly 50 games. After trading away Tyrese Haliburton, a future perennial all-star, for more of a win-now piece in Domantas Sabonis, the pressure will start to kick in for this team to continue to build off what they did last year, and after successfully making a big leap, the Kings will be faced with something they haven’t experienced in nearly two decades — expectations.

  The Kings bring back virtually every major contributor from the NBA’s all-time best offense (by offensive rating) last season. By far the two biggest reasons for the Kings ascension last season were the emergence of De'Aaron Fox as a legitimate difference maker and a full season of Sabonis. Both of them enjoyed by far their best seasons as a pro. Sabonis led the NBA in rebounds per game (12.3), posted career highs in assists per game (7.3), and had a ridiculously efficient season. He shot a career high 37.3% from three (min. 1.0 3PA per game) and 61.5% from the field, an unfathomable number for a guy of his volume that shoots more than just shots at the rim. While Fox has always put up good counting stats, his efficiency and advance metrics were on another level compared to what he was used to, and the eye test backed that up. He shot a career best 51.2% from the field, flipped his advanced stats from negative across the board to positive across the board, and even took home the NBA's inaugural Clutch Player of the Year award. On top of their top two guys, they bring back a really strong supporting cast and a deep bench. Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk were both awesome in their first year with the team and provided elite shooting next to Fox in the backcourt. Keegan Murray was ahead of schedule as a real contributor in his rookie season, starting 78 games, averaging double figure points, and shooting a surprising 41% from three. While he isn't flashy, Harrison Barnes continues to be a very steady and solid two-way player and fifth starter for this team, providing much needed ancillary scoring and production as a catch-and-shoot guy. They also bring back Trey Lyles and Davion Mitchell, both of whom had solid seasons and played key roles off the bench last season. In terms of additions to the team, their two biggest ones were Chris Duarte and Sasha Vezenkov (the reigning EuroLeague MVP), both of whom are scorers and shooters that will fit right in with what they have. Sacramento will once again roll out one of the most impressive and deep 10-man rotations in the NBA this season led by their two all-stars, but unlike last year, they have a taste of the playoffs under their belt.

  Despite bringing back every major contributor from their best season in 16 years, the Kings still come with some major red flags. By far the number one cause for concern with this group is their defense. Last season, they were only 25th in the league defensively with nearly a 117 defensive rating as a team, a truly awful number, not only for a team looking to compete, but for any team at all, as they had the single worst defensive rating by a team to make the playoffs in NBA history and did absolutely nothing to address this issue. The Kings were able to overcome an awful defense last season due to a historically good offense, some of the best crunch time play in the league, the best injury luck in the league, and a strangely down year for a lot of other teams in the West, but all of those factors may not be in their favor next year. Clutch time play is one of the most variable stats in the league year-to-year, and this team's strong play in those situations last season has a good chance to regress, just ask the Phoenix Suns, who went from a +33.4 net rating in clutch time in 2022 to a -2.7 in 2023, despite bring back virtually the same group to start the season. The Kings also had absurd injury luck last year, as all five of their starters played at least 73 games, a number that seems almost impossible to replicate in back-to-back seasons. None of this is even to mention that the West should be significantly stronger this season with teams like Phoenix, Golden State, and the Lakers in much better situations than a year ago, and if those teams elevate, than someone has to fall back in the standings.

  While the Kings bring everyone back and even added a few nice depth pieces, none of those pieces addressed their biggest weakness — defense. They also now have a target on their back and will not catch opponents off guard this year. They have real expectations. Their awful defensive numbers, unsustainable offensive numbers, likely increased variability in clutch time, improbable injury luck, and the conference’s overall improvement all make the Kings a real regression candidate. Can they replicate their offensive production from a year ago or make drastic improvements on defense? It's possible, but consider me a skeptic. But even with all of that, this team should rightfully have playoff expectations once again, but securing a top-three seed again or taking a leap to true contention is a lofty goal.

  Team Ceiling

  If they can continue to be great on offense while taking even a small step forward on the defensive end, then Sacramento should be able to replicate their success of a year ago and compete for a top-four seed, even in the improved West. With a year of playoff experience now under their belt, there's no doubt they could advance past the first round this time around, but they are still a clear step behind the Suns, Nuggets, and Lakers of the world, so anything beyond a second round exit feels like a bit of a stretch for this group.

  Team Floor

  Their offense could regress and their defense could continue to be in the bottom five of the league, and if that happens, then they might tumble down the standings, especially when you consider how improved the West is as a conference. A spot in the play-in is not only realistic, but maybe likely, and if they run into a tough matchup while there, it's not crazy to think this team could find itself where it was for 16 straight years — in the lottery.

• 11. New Orleans Pelicans (40-42)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 7: If Not This Year, Maybe Next

  Projected Rotation

  G - CJ McCollum (69) / Jose Alvarado

  G - Herb Jones / Dyson Daniels

  F - Brandon Ingram (34) / Trey Murphy III*

  F - Zion Williamson (19) / Naji Marshall

  C - Jonas Valanciunas / Lary Nance Jr.

  *Will miss the start of the season due to injury

  Season Outlook

  Last year’s Pelicans team showed us the best and worst of what this team can be. New Orleans started last season 18-8 and, as late as December 12th, sat atop the Western Conference as the number one seed, where they then remained a top-three seed all the way until January 17th. But after that hot start, Zion would only play 8 more games the rest of the season and the Pelicans fell off a cliff, going 15-29 in their next 44 games, including a 10-game losing streak in late January. Their talent is mesmerizing and we’ve seen what they can be, but it remains to be seen if we will ever see this group’s potential come to fruition.

  After this team’s first taste of real success last season, the Pelicans bring back the team’s top 10 players in minutes played from a year ago in hopes of recreating their early season success. Given the unquestioned amount of talent this group has, it makes sense that they’d want to see it play out another year and pray that Zion can finally put together a healthy season, and boy is he due for one. When Zion has been on the court, it’s hard to overstate how truly elite he has been. He has a career average of nearly 26 PPG on a historically great 60.8% from the field. Among the 16 players in the history of the NBA to average 25 PPG for their career, Zion has the highest career FG% ever by more than 6% over the next highest, Wilt Chamberlain. If you loosen the parameters to include 20+ PPG scorers, or even just 15+ PPG, Zion is still number one on the list. His impact is felt from a wins and losses perspective as well, as they were 17-12 last season with him playing and only 25-28 without him. Having him healthy pushes Brandon Ingram to a number two role and CJ McCollum to a number three, slots in the pecking order that they both are ideal for. Behind those guys, the Pelicans have a very deep roster of young, talented, two-way players as well with Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Jose Alvarado, and Dyson Daniels. Add in veterans like Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance in the front court and they have a deep and talented 9-10 man rotation. The Willie Green hire also looked like it was a hit in his first year with the team and he might be one of the next big things in the coaching world. This team legitimately looked like the next group to take a major leap last year before Zion got hurt and things went awry. They were supposed to be the Kings of last year before the Kings happened. It would not be surprising at all for them to find themselves near the top of the standings once again with a chance to make some real noise in the postseason once there.

  All of that sounds great in theory, but how many times do we have to talk about what this group could be before we start talking about what they’ve truly been instead. The fact of the matter is that Zion cannot be trusted to put together a full season and Ingram hasn’t been much more reliable in recent years either (50 games per year over the past two seasons). Those two have remarkably played only 17 games together over the past two seasons combined. This is doubly bad because 1) this team can’t be expected to perform at a high level without at least one of their two best players for almost 90% of their games played and 2) their lack of reps together add real question marks as to how these two fit together as a tandem on the court. For example, last season, Zion averaged a resounding 28.7 PPG on 17.4 FGAs and 9.7 FTAs when he played without Ingram, but those numbers fell to 22.2 on 14.5 FGA and 6.9 FTAs with him. His 14.5 FGAs are lower than the 15.1 FGAs that Ingram takes when playing with Zion, showing that when they play together, Zion has essentially acted as the 2nd fiddle to Ingram and is the one making a larger sacrifice in terms of shot attempts and scoring. Given Zion’s historically good 60% shooting from the field and ability to draw fouls, this should not be the case if this team wants to be the best version of what they can be. The best version of this team is as Zion as the first option and Ingram as the two, and since these guys have barely been able to play together, they haven’t been able to figure out what that dynamic looks like. Every year it feels like it’s a different issue for Zion. He’s either coming into the year out of shape, sustains a new injury, or his recovery time is inexplicably long. Whatever it may be, if Zion continues to miss time, this team will continue to be stuck in no man’s land.

  You never want to assume injury, but that data doesn’t lie. 29 games in two years is just an outrageously low number for Zion to play and he’s only played even 30 games in a season one single time. This is really not a knock on Zion’s on the court production or this team’s talent overall, but this team just can’t be trusted. If you could guarantee me we’d get even 50-60 games from Zion, then I’d have drastically different feelings about this team. If that finally did happen, then 45-50 wins and a Kings like jump up the standings can’t be ruled out, but I’ll believe it when I see it. I’d rather be wrong if the improbable happens than kick myself for falling for the “what if” again.

  Team Ceiling

  The sky is the limit for this young group if they can stay healthy. A full season of Zion and Ingram would lead to great success for them and a top-three seed would seem more realistic than not. Once in a playoff setting, it’s not crazy to think a healthy version of this team couldn’t win one round, or even two in the right matchup. Second round exit feels like the most plausible ceiling for this group though given the lack of postseason experience for their top two guys.

  Team Floor

  The West is stacked this season, and when that happens, it often is a battle of attrition for who ends up being the odd man out. Unfortunately for this group, that’s a battle they do not have a good record against thus far, so consider them a leading candidate to fall victim. Without a healthy Zion, or even a banged up Ingram, they could miss out entirely on the play-in considering how deep the conference is.

• 12. Utah Jazz (31-51)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 9: Bad But Fun

  Projected Rotation

  G - Jordan Clarkson / Collin Sexton

  G - Ochai Agbaji / Keyonte George

  F - Lauri Markkanen (36) / Talen Horton-Tucker

  F - John Collins (97) / Taylor Hendricks

  C - Walker Kessler (96) / Kelly Olynyk

  Season Outlook

  After years as a solid playoff team with limited championship upside, the Jazz finally did the smart thing and decided to blow it up by trading both Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell in an attempt to bottom out and compile assets. A great idea in theory, but they ended up adding too many good players for them to bottom out. Utah got off to a phenomenal start last year, and just three weeks into the season, had the best record in the West at 10-3. They eventually came back to Earth, but were still in the play-in hunt for the majority of the season and were tied for the 9 seed at 35-36 as late as March 20th. They went on to finish the year losing 9 of their last 11 games, which took them firmly out of the play-in, but their hot start gave them too much of a cushion to compete for a top pick in the draft.

  This team’s only big move this offseason was the acquisition of John Collins, a guy that is coming off his worst season as a pro and had majorly fallen out of favor in Atlanta. However, his situation is not so dissimilar from what Lauri Markkanen had experienced early in his career: a productive player with a very impressive skillset that just couldn’t find the right role with his previous team. Being by far the biggest reason Utah surprised people last season, it can’t be stated enough how impressive Markkanen’s first season in Utah was once he was given a longer leash. He averaged over 25 PPG and legitimately flirted with a 50/40/90 season. After spending most of his career as a spot-up shooting pick-and-pop big man, Markkanen took major leaps as an isolation scorer and shot-creator this past season, something that not many thought he was capable of. Much like Markkanen, Collins was relegated to a role that didn’t exactly maximize his skillset, mostly as a guy that stood in the corner to shoot threes. Do I expect Collins to average 25 PPG this year? No, but in the 3 seasons before last, he averaged 18 and 8 on 56% / 39% / 81% splits as the number-two scoring option on an Atlanta team that made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021. He’s been an extremely efficient stretch-four that doesn’t demand shots, doesn’t force things, and is solid defensively. Given Utah’s organizational stability, track record revitalizing players, and the outstanding job Will Hardy did in his first season, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Collins had a bounce back year in Utah. Aside from those two, the Jazz might have found an absolute steal when they acquired Walker Kessler in the Gobert deal. After not seeing many minutes in the first half of the year, he was a revelation in the second half. He averaged a double-double as a starter, blocked 3.3 shots per game after the all-star break, was extremely efficient (72% from the field), and the advanced stats absolutely loved him, even as a rookie. This team also still has Collin Sexton (still only 24 years old) and Ochai Agbaji (23) from the Mitchell trade, Talen Horton-Tucker (22) from last year’s midseason deal, and drafted Taylor Hendricks (19), Keyonte George (19), and Brice Sensabaugh (19) in the first round this year, so they are absolutely loaded with young talent. George in particular really impressed in summer league and preseason and could be a dark horse to compete for the Rookie of the Year award. They’ve also got productive veterans in Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk, and Kris Dunn, and any of those guys could be trade candidates this year.

  This team has loads of young talent and a treasure chest of picks after trading their two stars last year, so they have all the assets you could want to make a big move if they wanted to at some point. But for now, they seem content throwing their young guys out there and seeing what happens under Will Hardy, a guy that looks like one of the next elite coaches in the league. As we saw last year, this team is likely too talented to be among the worst records in the league, especially if Markkanen replicates his production, Collins has a bounce back year, Kessler continues his strong play from the second half, or any of the rookies pop right away. However, the West is totally loaded this season, so given their lack of star power and the fact that they might mail it in towards the end of the season like they did last year, Utah likely will find themselves in the lottery once again this season. Maybe next year they can make a real push towards play-in contention but they’d be smart to sit this year out.

  Team Ceiling

  We basically saw their ceiling last year. Markkanen looks like a star, their veterans contribute at a high level, and a few of their young guys break out in a big way (Kessler last year, could be George this year). If that happens again, expect Utah to hang around in the play-in discussion for most of the season, and if they continue to go for it towards the end of the season, they could actually make the play-in this year. If they did, I can’t see them getting all the way to the playoffs, as the other teams in the play-in race will have a major advantage talent wise and experience wise.

  Team Floor

  Markkanen could regress, Collins could show us last year was no fluke, and none of the young guys could do much this year. In this case, the Jazz could find themselves among the bottom-feeders in the West, especially if they sustain an injury or decide to tank in the second half.

• 13. Houston Rockets (29-53)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 10: Have Tankathon.com Bookmarked

  Projected Rotation

  G - Fred VanVleet (57) / Amen Thompson

  G - Jalen Green / Cam Whitmore

  F - Dillon Brooks / Jae’Sean Tate

  F - Jabari Smith / Tari Eason

  C - Alperen Sengun (89) / Jock Landale

  Season Outlook

  Since James Harden forced his way out of Houston, this franchise has been a total mess on the court. In the three seasons since he was traded, they’ve played at 60-loss pace in all three and had the NBA’s worst record in two of them. They are still in rebuilding mode but finally did add some veterans to help complement the group of young talent they’ve been collecting.

  There were rumblings of a Harden reunion in Houston this summer but the Rockets ultimately decided against it due to what many have hypothesized was a decision led by new head coach, Ime Udoka. The team did have an abundance of cap space they needed to use though, so instead they spent north of $60M combined annually on Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. This team has very badly needed some help defensively, as they’ve ranked 27th, 29th, and 29th in defensive rating over the past three seasons, and both VanVleet and Brooks should help immensely on that front. Brooks is coming off a year in which he made an all-defensive team and VanVleet has been very solid on that end throughout his career. VanVleet also brings the kind of consistent offensive production, veteran leadership, and championship pedigree that this team just has not had any of in recent years. The only veteran presence this team has had at all over the past few seasons has been Eric Gordon, who is now 34 and past his prime. To put into perspective how young and inexperienced this team has been, after Gordon and Boban Marjanovic (who barely even played), last year’s team didn’t have a single other player on the full-time roster that had more than three years of experience in the NBA. When you’re bad, you want young players, but that level of youth without any sort of steady veteran presence makes it nearly impossible to compete in this league. However, being so bad has allowed this team to compile a really nice group of young players to build around, headlined by Jalen Green (21 years old), Jabari Smith (20), and Alperen Sengun (21). Green has been impressive as a scorer, averaging 22 PPG in only his second season, Smith showed real flashes as a rookie and looked too good for summer league this year, and Sengun, who wasn’t drafted as highly as Green or Smith, might be the best of the bunch. Sengun already looks like a mini-Sabonis or an even mini-er Jokic, and he carries a similar level of upside to those guys if he continues to develop. The list doesn’t stop there though, as Tari Eason looked like a mid-round steal from last year’s draft and they also added Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore in the first round of this year’s draft as well.

  Having some grownups in the room will help, as will the addition of Udoka, a guy that is absolutely going to hold these players way more accountable than they have been in the past, but this team is still going to be bad. Thus far, their young guys have not been committed to the defensive end at all, and in Green and Smith’s case, they’ve been wildly inefficient offensively as well (41.6% from the field for Green and 40.8% for Smith). For this season, winning even just 30+ games should be viewed as a success, and hopefully the Udoka and VanVleet additions can help get a better, more efficient, and defensive minded version of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, and the rest of the young guys.

  Team Ceiling

  Playoffs for this year is definitely too lofty of a goal, but if Jabari takes a bit of a leap, Green can up his efficiency, and Udoka gets more out of this group defensively, then they have the talent to at least make a little bit of noise in the West. They could definitely flirt with a play-in spot for most of the season before ultimately falling short. Even if they miss the play-in, this team could definitely be a candidate to win 10+ more games than they did a year ago.

  Team Floor

  The Rockets have averaged only 20 wins per season over the past three years, so this season could be more of the same if their young guys come back largely the same and they don’t improve on defense. There is definitely a world where this group finishes dead last in the Western Conference standings and once again is competing for the top pick in the draft.

• 14. San Antonio Spurs (26-56)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 10: Have Tankathon.com Bookmarked

  Projected Rotation

  G - Jeremy Sochan / Tre Jones

  G - Devin Vassell (98) / Malaki Branham

  F - Keldon Johnson (91) / Julian Champagnie

  F - Victor Wembanyama / Cedi Osman

  C - Zach Collins / Charles Bassey

  Season Outlook

  After 22 consecutive seasons in the postseason, including 20 straight years winning 50+ games, the Spurs dynasty finally came to an end after the retirement of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli and the unexpected trade demand of Kawhi Leonard. After three seasons of mediocrity as a mid-30s win team, San Antonio completed their full fall from grace in winning only 22 games last season, in what many hypothesized was an intentional tank job to land a certain someone in this year’s draft, and that is exactly what they did.

  David Robinson, Tim Duncan, and now Victor Wembanyama. I don’t know how they keep doing this, but the Spurs had a generational big man fall into their laps once again. Wemby is without a doubt the most hyped prospect since LeBron James and some have even gone as far as to call him the best prospect of all time. At 7’4”, an 8-foot wingspan, and the skills and mobility of a guard, it’s not hard to understand why when you watch him play. He’s an absolute freak on the court. He can handle the ball, can shoot it from anywhere on the court (both off-the-dribble and on the catch-and-shoot), has great basketball IQ and instinct, and has the length and anticipation to disrupt nearly any shot on the defensive end. Wembanyama has a chance to be special immediately, especially given the impact he can have on both ends of the court. Alongside Wemby, the Spurs have a few other promising young players, most notably Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan. Johnson and Vassell were this team’s leading scorers last season and both have increased their scoring each year in the league thus far, topping out at 22 PPG for Johnson and 18 PPG for Vassell last season. Sochan is a Swiss Army knife type player that does a little bit of everything. He’s great on the defensive end, showed flashes as a scorer late in the year, and is good enough of a ball-handler and distributor that Popovic plans to begin the season with him as the starting point guard for the team. Oh, and he shoots one-handed free throws as well and is much improved from the line because of it, which is fun. They also have other, less proven, young guys with upside in addition with Tre Jones, Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley, Zach Collins, Julian Champagnie, and Siddy Cissoko. One thing this group does majorly lack is veterans. They have one single player on the entire roster that is in their 30s (Doug McDermott) and only two players above the age of 25 (McDermott and Cedi Osman).

  Even with a Hall of Fame head coach in Gregg Popovic and the addition of Wemby, putting any expectations on this team in his first season is not realistic. They have no veteran contributors, their returning key players have been largely inefficient in their careers (55% True Shooting for both Vassell and Johnson last year), and Wembanyama is only 19 years old. Wemby also has one of the frailest frames in the entire league, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get bullied around a little bit early in his career. I also wouldn’t be shocked if they were very careful with Wemby this season in terms of managing his load, and since they’re likely going to play at 60-loss pace in the games he misses, if he misses even 15-20 games then that’s going to hurt their record a good bit. Ultimately, I think the Spurs are fine with taking this season slow and spending another year in the lottery before they start to make a postseason push, but if Wemby is as good as everything thinks he’ll be, then that could be as soon as next season.

  Team Ceiling

  Wemby could be good enough right away to put himself in the all-star discussion, and if he does, then this team will likely be relatively competitive. However, the West is loaded this year, so while they might be in the play-in race for part of the season, odds are high that towards the end of the year this team might be careful with Wemby and mail it in. Consider this team unlikely to make the play-in when it’s all said and done, but a 10+ win improvement wouldn’t be out of the question.

  Team Floor

  It is pretty rare for even the greatest players of all-time to have an overwhelming impact on winning in their first season, especially as a teenager. Even if Wemby shows flashes of greatness, odds are high that he has his struggles as well. His growing pains, paired with a relatively weak supporting cast, could keep this team where they were a year ago: at the bottom of the Western Conference vying for the top pick in the draft.

• 15. Portland Trail Blazers (24-58)

  Contender Tier

  Tier 10: Have Tankathon.com Bookmarked

  Projected Rotation

  G - Scoot Henderson / Malcolm Brogdon (72)

  G - Anfernee Simons (87) / Matisse Thybulle

  F - Shaedon Sharpe / Kris Murray

  F - Jerami Grant (56) / Jabari Walker

  C - Deandre Ayton (61) / Robert Williams III (77)

  Season Outlook

  After drafting Damian Lillard in the 2012 draft, the Blazers went on to make the postseason in eight consecutive seasons. The problem is, they lost in the first round in five of those appearances and only made it past the second round one single time. Also, that one Western Conference Finals trip was a bit misleading in terms of how far along the team was as a contender. The Blazers caught a break with the way the bracket ended up that year, as it resulted in the presumed two best teams, Houston and Golden State, facing off in the second round, and when Portland did finally play the Warriors, they was uncompetitive and got swept despite Kevin Durant being out. The Dame-led Blazer were a perennial playoff team that just could not get over the hump and never were serious contenders in the West. The past two seasons have been even worse, as Portland has missed the playoffs altogether, winning only 27 and 33 games respectively.

  After years of speculation, a Lillard trade finally happened. Portland shipped him off to Milwaukee for a haul that ended up being three first round picks, two pick swaps, Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams III, Malcolm Brogdon, and Toumani Camara, a very solid return for them. Ayton is still only 25 and is an uber-efficient, perennial 18 and 10 guy that could see a bump up in his number with an expanded role. He also brings a tremendous amount of playoff experience for a guy his age. Williams and Brogdon have been floated as potential trade chips but it appears they will hold onto them for now at least. Williams brings elite rim-protection and will be a true defensive anchor for this group (something that has been majorly lacking here for years) and Brogdon is the reigning Sixth Man of the Year and a member of the 50/40/90 club. That’s not even to mention Portland’s biggest offseason acquisition, and maybe the person that helped put this trade request in motion, and that is Scoot Henderson. Most draft experts had Scoot as the clear number two prospect after Wembanyama in this year’s draft, so the Blazers were lucky that he fell to them at number three. He brings elite athleticism, strong playmaking ability, an NBA ready body, and a “first guy in the gym, last one to leave” type of work ethic. He’s only 19 years old and still has to work on his outside shot and adjusting to the speed of the NBA, but Portland will give him a leash long enough to work through the growing pains. He truly has the potential to be a generational talent in this league, think the mold of a John Wall or Ja Morant. Portland also has another pair of guards with massive offensive upside in Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. Simons (24 years old) is among the best volume three-point shooters in the NBA (40% from three the past three years on 7 attempts) and Sharpe (20) started last season slow, but down the stretch showed why he might have been in contention for a top-three pick in his draft if he had actually played in college. In the final 10 games last season, in which he started all of them, Sharpe averaged 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on 46% / 38% / 77% shooting splits. He has legit all-star potential given his age and skillset. They also re-signed Jerami Grant, a steady, veteran presence on this team who has shown that he can score 20-25 points per night in the right situation. He helps raise the floor on this team as a true professional scorer but also could be dangled as a trade chip once eligible to be dealt. The combination of adding Scoot, the players they received back in the Dame trade, and the young talent they already had on this team, such as Sharpe, put Portland in a very nice position to embark on the rebuild that fans have been desperately asking them to finally commit to.

  This team does have more win-now talent than a lot of other bottom-feeders in the league (Grant, Brogdon, Williams, Ayton, etc.), but that shouldn’t stop them from being very bad this year. They were 27th in defensive rating this season and 30th the season before that, and outside of Robert Williams (and maybe Ayton to an extent), they didn’t add anyone that should impact their defense enough to make them significantly better there. Grant hasn’t shown interest on that end in years, Simons is among the worst defensive guards in the entire league, Scoot and Sharpe are too young to have developed consistent habits on that end yet, and even Ayton has not been consistently engaged defensively while on a contender, so why would he start now that he’s on a lottery team? This team is also a prime candidate to sell at the deadline. Possibly Williams, but most likely Grant and Brogdon could find themselves shipped off to contenders by the end of the year, which makes it all the more likely that this group is jockeying for lottery position come the last month of the season.

  Team Ceiling

  This team has both the young talent and the proven veteran talent to be an annoying team to play for any contender. They have 5-6 guys that could drop 20 points on you any given night, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see this team hang around in the play-in discussion for a good portion of the season. Due to defensive issues and potential trades, it doesn’t seem likely that this team can keep it up all year long though, so expect them to fall back eventually and be solidly in the lottery, even if it’s in the tail-end.

  Team Floor

  With how bad this team might be on defense, the possibility of trades for their veterans, and how stacked the West is, this group could be really bad. There’s no doubt that they are a contender for the worst record in the West this season with a legit shot at another top pick in the draft.